A FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE ECOLOGICAL RISK OF COASTAL HABITATS IN THE SARDINIA REGION RELATED TO FLOOD HAZARD

UN APPROCCIO FUZZY LOGIC PER IL CALCOLO DEL RISCHIO ECOLOGICO DEGLI HABITAT COSTIERI DELLA REGIONE SARDEGNA RELATIVO ALLA PERICOLOSITA’ DI INONDAZIONE

Abstract

Coastal environments are increasingly threatened by the combined effects of sea-level rise, extreme waves, and storm surges, particularly in the Mediterranean, a recognized climate change hotspot. This study develops a habitat-based Ecological Risk Index for coastal flooding in southwestern Sardinia, employing a fuzzy logic approach to integrate hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators. Using ecological indicators from the “Carta della Natura” and flood data from the European Coastal Flood Awareness System, risk maps are produced under five flood scenarios. Results reveal a progressive increase in both the extent and intensity of risk across scenarios 1 to 5, with the beaches and dunes ecosystem exhibiting high sensibility, ranging from 0.65 to 0.68, respectively, of the mean Ecological Risk Index. Caretta caretta nesting sites exhibit the highest mean index value (0.74) under extreme scenario. The proposed approach provides a useful decision-support tool for coastal management and conservation in the context of climate change.